Prime-time Parlay: FPI predictions for the biggest games of NFL Week 12

Mike McCarthy and Mike Zimmer will renew acquaintances on Sunday night. Wesley Hitt/Getty Images

It's Thanksgiving week, which means NFL games in seven (seven!) different time windows over the course of Thursday, Sunday and Monday. A seven-game slate makes the Prime-Time Parlay challenge steeper, though the payoff on this weekend of authorized gluttony would also be handsome.

Once again, Prime-time Parlay is all about the best games: Thursday, Sunday and Monday's prime-time (or in this case holiday) games and the top 1 p.m. ET and 4 p.m. ET Sunday matchups. Straight-up picks, but you gotta hit all seven. Then we calculate how much you would earn for the parlay, using Westgate's money lines.

Via ESPN's Football Power Index, Prime-time Parlay tells you the analytics-based predictions for the meetings of greatest national import, offering the smart picks for the games you'll be watching. (All NFL point spreads and money lines can be found here).

Total payout for Week 12 Prime-time Parlay (selecting all FPI-projected winners in seven games): $1031.62 on $100 wager

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (12:30 p.m. ET Thursday, CBS)

Money line: Bears -200
FPI projection: Bears win by 4.6 points

The Lions have the worst defense in the NFL, per FPI, fueled by the worst pass rush win rate in the league. That's good news for Mitchell Trubisky (or Chase Daniel, who may start in his place) and the Bears, who are a respectable 13th on the offensive end and much better than that at fifth on defense. -- Seth Walder

Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys (4:30 p.m. ET Thursday, FOX)

Money line: Cowboys -350
FPI projection: Cowboys win by 8.7 points

FPI didn't think Washington was particularly good before the catastrophic injury to Alex Smith (FPI rank entering last week: 22), and now the Redskins have lost Smith (which FPI knows about). The Redskins might lead the division, but the Cowboys (13th in FPI) have become the favorites to win the NFC East, per FPI. -- Walder

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (8:20 p.m. ET Thursday, NBC)

Money line: Saints -800
FPI projection: Saints win by 11.3 points

Monday night's Rams-Chiefs game was undeniably awesome, but it also was close. Meanwhile, the Saints blew out the Eagles in Week 11, and now FPI thinks New Orleans is the best team in the NFL. The Saints' league-best offense is 12.5 points above average -- and a full field goal per game better than the next best offense (Chiefs, +9.5). -- Walder

Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers (1:00 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX)

Money line: Panthers -180
FPI projection: Panthers win by 3.3 points

FPI actually thinks the Seahawks are better than the Panthers (Seattle 12th in RPI, Carolina 14th), but a cross-country road trip means it also likes Carolina by a field goal here. Despite solid pass protection, Russell Wilson ranks only 16th in QBR. -- Walder

Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos (4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS)

Money line: Steelers -170
FPI projection: Steelers win by 3.4 points

The Steelers are above average in all three phases of the game, as FPI ranks them sixth in offense, eighth in defense and 15th in special teams. The offense went cold against Jacksonville last week; but in the five previous games, the unit had an efficiency of 74 or higher. -- Walder

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (8:20 p.m. ET Sunday, NBC)

Money line: Vikings -180
FPI projection: Vikings win by 2.2 points

It's honestly pretty remarkable that Kirk Cousins ranks as high as he does in QBR (11th), considering how poor the Vikings' pass protection has been (sixth worst). Minnesota makes up for it with a league-best defense, which will look to keep up its reputation against Green Bay's ninth-rated offense. -- Walder

Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (8:15 p.m. ET Monday, ESPN)

Money line: Texans -280*
FPI projection: Texans win by 8.8 points

The Texans' defense is the separator here. Titans offensive tackles Taylor Lewan and Jack Conklin are solid, but the line's interior is brutally weak; it will be interesting to see if Houston tries to move J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney around to take on the middle of that O-line. -- Walder

* - estimated money line

Final Parlay: Bears, Cowboys, Saints, Panthers, Steelers, Vikings, Texans

For more from ESPN Analytics, visit the ESPN Analytics Index.