Opening week in the NFL is a great time to tap the brakes and remember that first impressions frequently do not endure. Here's a look at which Week 1 surprises I'm buying and which ones I'm resisting for the time being:
What I'm buying
The Colts are this bad: They are when Scott Tolzien is the quarterback instead of Andrew Luck. Indy's 46-9 road defeat to the Los Angeles Rams showed just how much the Colts depend on Luck to carry their rebuilding roster. The drop from Luck to a legitimate backup could be significant enough. The drop from Luck to the replacement-level Scott Tolzien? It's almost incalculable in the absence of an average supporting cast.