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Championship 4 Clinch Scenarios

UPDATE: With Kevin Harvick's penalty, this page will be updated if NASCAR provides additional information.

Kyle Busch Points: 28 points ahead of 5th, 25 points ahead of 4th

Clinches if finishes: Busch must earn 31 points (out of a maximum 55 for a second-place finish, and sweeping both stages) to guarantee himself a spot. That is a sixth-place finish if he doesn't earn any stage points. If the winner is not Kurt Busch, Elliott, Almirola or Bowyer, he can clinch by finishing ninth or higher even if he doesn't earn stage points. If a playoff driver wins, Busch must finish ahead of two of these four, not counting anyone who wins Phoenix, who currently are behind him by the margins listed: Martin Truex Jr. (-3), Kevin Harvick (-25), Kurt Busch (-28), Chase Elliott (-42).

Martin Truex Jr. Points: 25 points ahead of 5th, 22 points ahead of 4th

Clinches if finishes: Truex must earn 34 points -- a third-place finish if no stage points -- to guarantee himself a spot no matter what anyone else does. If the winner is not Kurt Busch, Elliott, Almirola or Bowyer, he can clinch by finishing sixth or higher even if he doesn't earn stage points. If one of them wins, Truex has to finish with 22 points more than Harvick (or 23 if Harvick finishes second) or gain three points on Kyle Busch (four if Busch finishes second) while also keeping drivers Kurt Busch (-25) and Elliott (-39) behind him if they don't win.

Kevin Harvick Points: 3 points ahead of 5th; 22 points behind 3rd

Clinches if finishes: Harvick must win to clinch a spot in the playoffs, regardless of what anyone else does. If he doesn't win and the winner is not Kurt Busch, Elliott, Almirola or Bowyer, he must earn four more points than Kurt Busch (three if Harvick finishes fifth or better), and not lose 18 points to Elliott (17 if Harvick finishes fifth or better) or 35 points to Almirola. If Kurt Busch, Elliott, Almirola or Bowyer win, Harvick must gain 23 points on Truex (22 if Harvick finishes second) or 26 points on Kyle Busch (23 if Harvick finishes third or better) while also keeping if-they-are-winless drivers Kurt Busch (-3) and Elliott (-17) behind him.

Kurt Busch Points: 3 points behind 4th, 25 points behind 3rd

Clinches if finishes: Busch must win to guarantee himself a spot. If Almirola, Elliott or Bowyer win, he must do two of the three: gain three points on Harvick (four points if Harvick finishes better than sixth), 26 points on Truex (25 if Kurt Busch finishes second) and/or 29 points on Kyle (28 points if Kurt Busch finishes third). If Truex wins, Kurt must catch Kyle or Harvick. If Harvick wins, Kurt must catch Kyle or Truex. If anyone else wins, he must catch either Truex or Kyle or Harvick. In all these scenarios, he must remain ahead of a winless Elliott (-14), Almirola (-32) and Bowyer (-48).

Chase Elliott Points: 17 points behind 4th, 39 points behind 3rd

Clinches if finishes: Elliott must win to guarantee himself a spot. If Kurt Busch wins, he must do two of the three: gain 17 points on Harvick, 40 points on Truex, or 43 points on Kyle Busch. If Harvick, Kyle Busch or Truex wins, he must do two of the three: gain 15 points on Kurt, 40 points on Truex, 43 points on Kyle Busch. If anyone else wins, he must do three of the four: gain 15 points on Kurt, 17 points on Harvick, 40 points on Truex, or 43 points on Kyle Busch. If he finishes second or third, he could own all tiebreakers and need one fewer point in those scenarios. He owns the tiebreaker with Harvick. In all these scenarios, he also must stay ahead of Almirola, who would need to gain 19 points on Elliott (18 if Almirola is top-5).

Aric Almirola Points: 35 points behind 4th, 57 points behind 3rd

Clinches if finishes: Almirola must win to guarantee himself a berth to the next round. If he doesn't win, he must gain 35 points on Harvick, 33 on Kurt Busch (32 if Almirola finishes top-5) and 19 on Elliott (18 if Almirola finishes top-5).

Clint Bowyer Points: 51 points behind 4th, 73 points behind 3rd

Clinches if finishes: Bowyer must win to guarantee himself berth to the next round. If he doesn't win, he must gain 51 points on Harvick, 48 points on Kurt Busch, 34 points on Elliott and 16 points on Almirola.

--- ESPN.com ---

NASCAR Xfinity Series

Tyler Reddick - Reddick would clinch with 46 Points and a new winner. If there is a repeat winner (or a win by Elliott Sadler, Daniel Hemric or a non-playoff driver), Reddick would clinch on points with 35 Points. With a win, he would clinch.

Elliott Sadler - Sadler would clinch with 54 Points and a new winner. If there is a repeat winner (or a win by Tyler Reddick, Daniel Hemric or a non-playoff driver), he would clinch on points with 43 Points. With a win, he would clinch.

Daniel Hemric - Hemric would clinch with 55 Points and a new winner. If there is a repeat winner (or a win by Tyler Reddick, Elliott Sadler or a non-playoff driver), he would clinch on points with 44 Points. With a win, he would clinch.

Justin Allgaier - The only guaranteed result that gives Allgaier a Championship 4 spot is a win. Allgaier could also clinch on points, but would need help depending on the winner.

Matt Tifft - The only guaranteed result that gives Tifft a Championship 4 spot is a win. Tifft could also clinch on points, but would need help depending on the winner.

Christopher Bell - The only guaranteed result that gives Bell a Championship 4 spot is a win. Bell could also clinch on points, but would need help depending on the winner.

Austin Cindric - Cindric can only clinch a spot with a win.

NASCAR Camping World Truck Series

Brett Moffitt - Moffitt would clinch with 51 Points and a new winner. If there is a repeat winner (or a win by Noah Gragson or a non-playoff driver), he would clinch on points with 33 Points. With a win, he would clinch.

Noah Gragson - If there is a repeat winner (or a win by Brett Moffitt or a non-playoff driver), Gragson would clinch with 38 Points. With a win, he would clinch. Could clinch on points with a new winner, but would need help.

Grant Enfinger - The only guaranteed result that gives Enfinger a Championship 4 spot is a win. Enfinger could also clinch on points, but would need help depending on the winner.

Matt Crafton - The only guaranteed result that gives Crafton a Championship 4 spot is a win. Crafton could also clinch on points, but would need help depending on the winner.

--- NASCAR ---