Sunday is the final day of the 2018-19 Premier League season, with the trophy still at stake. Not too shabby!
It'll be tough to top the drama of the past couple days, when Liverpool and Tottenham both overturned 3-0 deficits, against Barcelona and Ajax, to advance to the Champions League final. But seeing whether Manchester City slips up at Brighton, giving Liverpool an opportunity to win their first title of the Premier League era, is going to be fun, too.
It's also fun to win your fantasy league! And I'm here to help if you need a victory on the final weekend.
Speaking of Manchester City, they are the biggest favorites this week, not surprisingly. Man City have now won 13 league games in a row, and are unlikely to falter against a Brighton side which barely avoided relegation.
Therefore, Sergio Aguero makes plenty of sense as your Tier 1 forward and captain. He's tied for second in the league with 20 goals, including a goal and seven shots in Man City's 2-0 home win over Brighton back in September.
However, Aguero is not particularly hot right now, with only two goals in his past seven games.
More importantly, Aguero plays for Manchester City -- meaning he definitely won't be in my fantasy lineup! As a Liverpool fan, I refuse to root for any Man City player this week. And I've already locked up my fantasy league, so I can afford that luxury.
If Mohamed Salah returns following his concussion last weekend, he'll be my Tier 1 forward and captain -- and not just because he plays for Liverpool. Salah is on the verge of winning his second consecutive Golden Boot, with 22 goals heading into Liverpool's league finale at home against Wolves. He's scored six goals in his past eight games, and had a goal and an assist in Liverpool's 2-0 win at Wolves in December.
If Salah doesn't start, I'll go with Marcus Rashford instead. Yes, Manchester United are not playing well -- they drew 1-1 against already-relegated Huddersfield Town last week. But Rashford did take five shots in that game, and his team are the second-biggest favorites of the final round, at home against another relegated club in Cardiff City.
I won't be choosing teammate Paul Pogba as my Tier 1 midfielder, however. Pogba has scored in only one of his past 14 games, and is averaging less than two shots per game during that stretch.
Eden Hazard may be playing his last Premier League game for Chelsea, with a move to Real Madrid appearing likely this summer. I think he'll want to finish with a flourish, with Chelsea playing at Leicester City.
Hazard had two assists and six chances created in a 3-0 win over Watford last week. He now has 16 goals and a league-leading 15 assists on the season. Hazard is also second in the league in chances created with 97, just one behind Leicester's James Maddison.
Maddison is tops in points per game among Tier 2 midfielders. But I don't fancy him going up against Chelsea.
Lucas Moura, the hat-trick hero for Tottenham against Ajax on Wednesday, is available in this tier as well. But there's a reason why he's way down the list, in terms of points per game. Moura is a feast-or-famine player. He also had a hat trick against Huddersfield Town on April 13, but didn't score in six straight games after that, averaging just two shots per game during that span.
Also, Tottenham are essentially locked into fourth place, and up against an Everton team that has been surprisingly good defensively this season, conceding 44 goals -- only Man City (22), Liverpool (22), Tottenham (37) and Chelsea (39) have conceded fewer.
Southampton are actually the fourth-biggest favorites of the week, at home against Huddersfield. Nathan Redmond didn't start last Saturday against West Ham, but took four shots after coming on at halftime. And he had an assist and took six shots the week before against Bournemouth.
Redmond's numbers on the season -- five goals, four assists -- are rather modest. But he's been more aggressive offensively since Ralph Hasenhuttl took over as manager, and his underlying numbers -- 7.75 xG (expected goals), 4.91 xA (expected assists) - are more impressive than his actual results. Redmond got a goal and an assist in a 3-1 win at Huddersfield in December, and I like his chances of another good game on Sunday.
The next biggest favorites after Southampton are Crystal Palace, who will host Bournemouth. Both Wilfried Zaha and Michy Batshuayi scored last week against Cardiff, and Bournemouth have conceded 65 goals this season -- only Fulham (77), Huddersfield (75) and Cardiff (69) have conceded more.
Zaha is the bigger name. But Batshuayi took five shots last week, compared to Zaha's three. And Zaha is barely averaging two shots per game on the season. I'm going with Batshuayi over Zaha if he starts.
James Milner, Liverpool (Tier 3 midfielder): Milner puts up solid numbers via peripheral categories like passes completed, plus he's on penalties for Liverpool when he's on the field, giving him more upside than most of the other players in this tier.
Virgil van Dijk, Liverpool (Tier 1 defender): Van Dijk scored his fourth league goal of the season against Newcastle last week, and also has two goals in the Champions League. Plus he's third in the league in passes completed, averaging 71.4 per game.
Trent Alexander-Arnold, Liverpool (Tier 2 defender): Alexander-Arnold was one of the biggest heroes of the victory over Barcelona on Tuesday, providing the game-winning assist. It was his third in the Champions League this season, and he has 11 in the Premier League -- only Hazard, Ryan Fraser (14) and Christian Eriksen (12) have more.
Alisson, Liverpool (Goalkeeper): He's tied with Ederson for the league lead in clean sheets with 20, and is coming off a brilliant five-save performance against Barcelona. He also shut out Wolves the first time around. Up the Reds!