Make no mistake, Cadogan is a horse who has always had the talent to be successful, but either through physical or mental problems, he's never reached the heights that may have been expected of him early.
Toby Edmonds looks to have found the key to the son of Smart Missile in this preparation. His last two wins at Doomben have been simply dominant, and I can see no reason as to why he can't make it three straight in town.
Arguably, the switch over the road to Eagle Farm is a boost for him. He likes to be ridden quietly and he's a horse that needs a bit of room. The manner in which he raced away from Chapter And Verse a fortnight ago was impressive, and although this is clearly a better field, he draws well, stays down in the weights, and I simply can't see how he will lose if he repeats that effort.
AROUND THE GROUNDS
The Godolpin two-year-old train has been steaming through Sydney's juvenile races this season, as they continue to seemingly rack up winners week-after-week.
And it will be happening again on Saturday when they roll out Exceed And Excel colt Deterge.
He's had one trial, a closing effort behind what could be a very smart youngster himself in Jahbath. Neither of them were under any real pressure and they easily beat the rest in good time. Outside of his underlying ability, the biggest reason he should be making a winning debut is that there isn't, to my eye anyway, a great deal up against him here.
Cop the short odds and kick your punting day off in style.
This progressive son of High Chaparral has been good to me of late, so perhaps I'm beginning to see him through some rose-coloured glasses. I really do think Friedensberg has above average ability and can make the leap to Saturday grade here in style.
No doubt this is a rise in grade, but I wouldn't say it's an overly strong race. It's a race that you could argue has plenty of chances, but none of the them have the upside of this guy, whose back-to-back wins at his last two starts have been full of merit.
Up to the mile and a quarter won't be an issue, and he's bound to get a gun run. The only question for me is whether that at this very early stage of his career can he handle both the rise in grade and rise in trip. I think the answer is yes, and I'm diving into that current quote to find out.
Red Doulton's record should be better than what it is, with just the lone win from her 12 starts, but they haven't quite settled on exactly what she is yet. Is she a miler, or a get back sprinter? My gut feel is she's the latter, and I like the fact that Natalie McCall has kept her to the sprints this preparation. I also think bringing her back further in trip to the five furlongs of this, might be a big plus.
She ran on well late behind Outback Barbie in the Mode Stakes at the start of this month, and although she takes on the boys now, there isn't any Outback Barbies going around in this.
She'll get back on Saturday, but there's plenty of speed engaged. If Ryan Wiggins can just have her bide her time for one crack at them late, I can envisage her storming home over the top of this lot.
OVER THE ODDS
This is one of those strange benchmark races that have all of a sudden been appearing on Sydney Saturday cards. Even though it's restricted to three and four year-olds, this isn't a bad field, and Divine Breeze looks extremely appealing at that current quote.
The Gooree mare is only a lightly raced four year-old, with decent upside, and first up off a five-month break. I thought she was very brave at this circuit a few weeks back, when leading on a pretty heavy track and fighting on strongly for second against fitter types. The form out of that race looks good with Spanish Dream, the mare that she fought off late to claim second, winning at Wyong midweek.
She now draws a perfect gate to either take up the running again, without much work, or sit behind something else that wants to lead. She'll be in this for a long way and with that extra bit of fitness under her belt, I like her chances at double figures.
Leg 1 - 8,9
Leg 2 - 1,2,3,7,10,12
Leg 3 - 5,7,12
Leg 4 - 1,3,6,7,9,11,12,13
($100 = 34.72%)
Leg 1 - 3,5,6,10
Leg 2 - 4,9,12,14
Leg 3 - 8,11
Leg 4 - 1,2,9,12,15,17,19
($100 = 44.64%)